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?:abstract
  • Opinion polls do not only reflect public opinion, but polls also shape public opinion. Polls can influence public opinion by shaping voters’ expectations of election outcomes. These expectations are relevant because electoral expectations might influence electoral behaviour. Recent studies of voters’ electoral expectations that include the effects of polls only consider the direct effect of polls during an election campaign. Polls in these studies are operationalised as dry numerical information. However, it is unlikely that only poll percentages alter electoral expectations. Furthermore, polls are rarely presented by the media as solely numerical information; if polls reach the news then polls are usually contextualised and interpreted. This study does not only include the direct effect of polls on electoral expectations, but also includes the interpretation by the media. To study the influence of polls and their contextualisation by the media, the 2013 German Federal Election is studied using the rolling cross section data from the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) in combination with the GLES campaign media content analysis. The results of vector auto regressions and multilevel models suggest that electoral expectations were influenced by polls and their interpretation by the media, but only for the newly founded AfD. The electoral expectations for the established small parties were not significantly influenced by the polls or their interpretation in the media. The coalition expectations were mainly influenced by the expectations whether the FDP would pass the threshold and not by the polls. (xsd:string)
?:author
?:comment
  • (GLES) (xsd:string)
?:dataSource
  • GLES-Bibliography (xsd:string)
?:dateCreated
  • 9. Fassung, Januar 2020 (xsd:gyear)
?:dateModified
  • 2018 (xsd:gyear)
?:datePublished
  • 2018 (xsd:gyear)
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is ?:hasPart of
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  • english (xsd:string)
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?:name
  • Polls, news and electoral expectations: Do polls and their interpretation by the media influence electoral expectations? (xsd:string)
?:publicationType
  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
?:reference
?:sourceCollection
  • Politicologenetmaal, 7-8 June 2018, Leiden University (xsd:string)
?:sourceInfo
  • Bibsonomy (xsd:string)
  • In Politicologenetmaal, 7-8 June 2018, Leiden University , 2018 (xsd:string)
?:studyGroup
  • German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) (xsd:string)
?:tags
  • 2018 (xsd:string)
  • FDZ_Wahlen (xsd:string)
  • GLES (xsd:string)
  • GLES_input2019 (xsd:string)
  • GLES_pro (xsd:string)
  • GLES_version9 (xsd:string)
  • ZA5703 (xsd:string)
  • ZA5705 (xsd:string)
  • checked (xsd:string)
  • english (xsd:string)
  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
rdf:type
?:uploadDate
  • 14.11.2019 (xsd:gyear)