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The present chapter explores, for the 2009 and 2013 federal elections, whether there is evidence for contextual effects on German voters’ turnout. Specifically, the chapter seeks to answer the following questions: Are variable levels of constituency turnout relevant for the constituencies’ residents’ decisions on whether or not to go the polls? To what extent are these relationships due to composition and contextual effects? To what extent are context effects mediated by voters’ networks of political discussants? What is the role of network members from inside and outside voters’ households in mobilizing or demobilizing voters to go to the polls? The chapter addresses these questions by means of multilevel analyses, combining survey data collected by the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) with constituency-level data. We begin by deriving a set of testable hypotheses from a discussion of extant research on contextual and social network effects on voting behavior, in particular turnout. Next, we elaborate on the data and methods used for our analyses and present our findings for the 2009 and 2013 German federal elections. The chapter ends with reflections on our findings and perspectives for further research.
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GLES-Bibliography
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7. Fassung, Januar 2018
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A Vicious Circle of Demobilization? Context Effects on Turnout at the 2009 and 2013 German Federal Elections
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incollection
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Voters and Voting in Context. Multiple Contexts and the Heterogeneous German Electorate
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In Voters and Voting in Context. Multiple Contexts and the Heterogeneous German Electorate, edited by Schoen, Harald and Roßteutscher, Sigrid and Schmitt-Beck, Rüdiger and Weßels, Bernhard and Wolf, Christof, 1, 109-128, Oxford University Press, 2017
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German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES)
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2017
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FDZ_Wahlen
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GLES
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GLES_input2017
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GLES_pro
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GLES_version7
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ZA5303
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checked
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incollection
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