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?:abstract
  • In the run-up to national parliamentary elections news coverage on parties and candidates is becoming more and more important for voters. Besides giving information on the parties’ policy platforms and candidate competencies, also opinion poll results are reported. They can give a clue about the electoral chances of parties and set a political public disposition. How these chances develop is reported continually in the weeks before the election and thus might influence vote decisions, e.g. by creating an information environment that leads to bandwagon or underdog effects. Although the influence of opinion polls on vote decisions is often claimed by parties and the media, scholarly research on the matter is rare and the results are rather inconclusive. Faas et al. (2008) were able to show an impact of opinion polls reporting on voters’ expectation and party preferences regarding the German parliamentary election 2005 using conventional logistic regression models. Therefore they ignored the hierarchical order of the data. It is more plausible to treat opinion polls and media reporting as part of the information context in which voters operate and thus conduct multi-level models to take account of the hierarchical structured data. The proposed paper applies such a sophisticated model to the German parliamentary election of 2009 by using a rolling cross-section survey and additionally the analysis of pre-electoral media reporting generated by the GLES. (xsd:string)
?:author
?:comment
  • (GLES) (xsd:string)
?:dataSource
  • GLES-Bibliography (xsd:string)
?:dateCreated
  • 2. Fassung, Februar 2013 (xsd:gyear)
?:dateModified
  • 2012 (xsd:gyear)
?:datePublished
  • 2012 (xsd:gyear)
?:duplicate
is ?:hasPart of
is ?:mainEntity of
?:name
  • Effects of Opinion Polls and Media Reporting on Party Preferences: A Multi-Level Analysis (xsd:string)
?:publicationType
  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
?:reference
?:sourceCollection
  • 22. World Congress of Political Science (IPSA) (xsd:string)
?:sourceInfo
  • Bibsonomy (xsd:string)
  • In 22. World Congress of Political Science (IPSA), 2012 (xsd:string)
?:startDate
  • 08.07.-12.07.2012 (xsd:gyear)
?:studyGroup
  • German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) (xsd:string)
?:tags
  • 2012 (xsd:string)
  • FDZ_Wahlen (xsd:string)
  • GLES (xsd:string)
  • GLES_input2012 (xsd:string)
  • GLES_pro (xsd:string)
  • GLES_version2 (xsd:string)
  • ZA5303 (xsd:string)
  • ZA5306 (xsd:string)
  • checked (xsd:string)
  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
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