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How do voters form expectations about the policy positions of coalition governments? The literature to date generally assumes that voters hold beliefs consistent with Gamson's Law when making inferences about how the policy preferences of coalition parties affect government policy. Yet, little is known about whether voters actually form expectations that way. In this paper we leverage data sets from Austria, Germany, and Sweden and find that when it comes to citizens Gamson is wrong. While voters take account of the coalition parties' bargaining strength, perceiving that smaller coalition parties have disproportional influence on coalition policy. In other words, voters who live under and vote for coalition governments have a somewhat different sense of policy outcomes than the literature currently suggests.
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http://methods.sowi.uni-mannheim.de/working_papers/. (Politbarometer)
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Politbarometer-Bibliography
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Coalition Policy Perceptions
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Politbarometer (PB)
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2019
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FDZ_Wahlen
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PB
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PB_input2019
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checked
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english
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rp
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techreport
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