The probability of (at least) one outbreak of VDPV occurring is therefore given by P(VDPV outbreak)=1−exp(−rq)(6) and the expected proportion of individuals that have been infected with a VDPV once the outbreak has finished can be obtained using the equation for y21 and replacing R0S by R0V, s0−y11 by sn and y11 by ρ∑k=1nik.
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