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  • Four predictors of subsequent yearly costs (i.e., prior year costs, prior year hospitalization, prior year comorbidity and prior year DCG) were compared using four different analytic approaches: a two part regression modeling strategy often used in econometric analysis; quantile regression to predict the upper 5% and 10% of the cost distribution; logistic regression to predict whether a specific individual would be in the upper 5% or 10% cost strata using positive predictive value; and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to evaluate sensitivity and specificity.
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