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"Syria has perceived Lebanon as its sphere of interest. Traditionally, Damascus has been an important factor in Lebanese politics. Considering rising tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in the region and the struggle between Saudi Arabia and Iran for hegemony, a possible collapse of the Baath-regime would have serious repercussions on developments in the region and before all on developments in Lebanon. The fall of the Baath-regime would strengthen the Sunni element and drive back Teheran's influence. For Hisbollah, one of Iran's closest allies and a partner of the Baath-regime, this poses a strategic dilemma." (author's abstract)
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