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  • One of the most striking empirical patterns of horse race betting markets is the favorite-longshot bias: Bets on favorites have dramatically higher expected returns than bets on longshots. The literature offers a couple of different, though not mutually exclusive, explanations based on risk preferences and probability perceptions. This article adds a new possible explanation: The favorite-longshot bias may be the rational answer of an honest audience to a simple, but highly lucrative cheating opportunity of insiders. We provide anecdotal evidence that the type of cheating we model here really takes place. What is more, by employing a large scale German data set we are able to demonstrate that the pattern of the favourite-longshot bias changes as the opportunity of cheating vanishes. The changes we observe are in accord with the cheating model we suggest. (xsd:string)
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?:dateModified
  • 2008 (xsd:gyear)
?:datePublished
  • 2008 (xsd:gyear)
?:doi
  • 10.1080/00036840701731538 ()
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  • en (xsd:string)
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  • 1 (xsd:string)
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  • Do horses like vodka and sponging? On market manipulation and the favourite-longshot bias (xsd:string)
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  • Zeitschriftenartikel (xsd:string)
  • journal_article (en)
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  • GESIS-SSOAR (xsd:string)
  • In: Applied Economics, 40, 2008, 1, 75-87 (xsd:string)
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?:urn
  • urn:nbn:de:0168-ssoar-242831 ()
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  • 40 (xsd:string)