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  • According to the public support literature, the state of the economy is the primary driver behind leader popularity. Yet, according to the diversionary theory of war, an unpopular leader may engage in a foreign crisis to both divert domestic discontent and bolster his or her political fortunes through a rally around the flag effect. Though this controversial assertion is quite popular, studies of whether foreign crisis participation actually increase public support for the leader are rare. Moreover, extant works either focus on the unique case of the US or, in a cross-national context, rely on macro-level outcomes such as office retention. Utilizing CSES Module II surveys covering 26 countries, 2001-2006, we conduct the first-ever cross-national investigation linking countries’ participation in foreign crises with individual-level data on subsequent support for their leaders. Multi-level analyses of the data reveal that foreign crisis participation (1) draws attention to foreign policy issues (i.e. agenda setting), (2) increases support for the leader, and (3) comes close to offsetting the negative impact of unemployment. Furthermore, while (4) employed and unemployed individuals respond to foreign crises nearly equally, (5) crisis participation helps the leader less among citizens concerned about foreign policy. This suggests (6) that the part of the population generally unconcerned with foreign policy is the one most susceptible to rallies. These novel insights offer a much more nuanced view of ramifications of foreign crises and thus inform both public support and diversionary literatures. (xsd:string)
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  • http://dx.doi.org/10.5129/001041513807709374. (CSES) (xsd:string)
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  • CSES-Bibliography (xsd:string)
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  • 2011 (xsd:gyear)
?:datePublished
  • 2011 (xsd:gyear)
?:doi
  • 10.5129/001041513807709374 ()
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  • 83 (xsd:string)
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  • 1 (xsd:string)
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  • Is it the economy or foreign policy, stupid? The impact of foreign crises on leader support (xsd:string)
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  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
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  • Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association (xsd:string)
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  • Bibsonomy (xsd:string)
  • In Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, 46(1), 83-101, 2011 (xsd:string)
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  • Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) (xsd:string)
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  • 2011 (xsd:string)
  • CSES (xsd:string)
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  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
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  • 101 (xsd:string)
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  • 46 (xsd:string)