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This paper develops and estimates a dynamic structural model of fertility with en-dogenous marriage formation, linking the timing of fertility to its intensive (numberof children) and extensive (having children) margin. The model features rational,forward-looking agents who make decisions on marriage and fertility, and are ex-posed to declining fecundity rates over time. In every period, agents face a trade-offbetween work and child-rearing, and across time there is a trade-off between havingchildren early or late in life. The model parameters are identified using four distinctfacts of the 2008 and 2012 German Microcensus: (i) fertility until age 30 decreaseswith education for married and single women, (ii) fertility after age 30 increases witheducation for married and single women, (iii) childlessness increases with women’seducation, (iv) marriage rates decrease with education for women and increase witheducation for men. I obtain three main insights. First, postponement of childbirthcombined with the natural decline of fecundity over time can explain up to 15% ofchildlessness, depending on education. Second, by estimating the model separatelyfor East and West Germany, I find that institutions and economic conditions mat-ter: the two major factors for childlessness in West Germany are postponement ofchildbirth and high opportunity costs of children due to lack of public childcare.By contrast, in East Germany, social sterility plays a larger role. Finally, using theestimated model parameters for counterfactual analysis, I evaluate consequences ofreoccurring labor market interruptions and policies aimed at reconciling work andfamily life.
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