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Educational differences in female cohort fertility have been shown to vary across high-income countriesand over time, butknowledge about how educational fertility differentialsplay out at the sub-national regional levelis limited. Examining these sub-national regional patterns might improve our understanding of national patterns, asregionally varying contextual conditions may affect fertility. Thisstudy providesfor the first time for a large number of European countries acomprehensive account of educational differences in the cohort fertilityrate (CFR) at the sub-national regional level. We harmonise datafrom population registers, censuses,and large-sample surveys for 15 countries in order to measure women’s completed fertility byeducational leveland region of residence at the end of the reproductive lifespan. In order to explore associations between educationaldifferences in CFRsand levels of economic development, welink ourdata to regional estimates of GDP per capita. Empirical Bayesian estimation is used to reduce uncertainty in theregional fertility estimates. Our results document an overall negative gradient between the CFR and level of education, and notable variation in the gradient across regions. The gradient varies systematically by the level of economic development: movingfrom less to more developedregions, we observe smallergradientsboth across countries and within countries.However, the within-country patterns of countries differ.Our findings underline the variability of educational gradients in women’s fertility, suggest that higherlevels of development may be associated with less negative gradients, and call for more in-depth fertility analyses by educationat the sub-national level.
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Educational differences in cohort fertility across sub-national regions in Europe
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(WP 2019-018), 38, 2019
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