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  • There are various scientific approaches to election forecasting: poll aggregation, structural models, electronic markets, and citizen forecasting. With respect to the German case, the first two approaches—polls and models—perhaps have been the most popular. However, relatively little work has been done deploying citizen forecasting (CF), the approach described in this article. In principle, CF differs considerably from other methods and appears, on its face, quite simple. Before an election, citizens are asked in a national survey who they think will win. As the percentage of expectations for party X increases, the likelihood of an X win is judged to be higher. The method has been applied regularly with success in other established democracies, such as the United Kingdom and the United States. We extend the application to Germany using responses to the expectation question in Politbarometer surveys since 1980. The forecasting targets are the vote shares of the following parties: Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), Green Party, Left Party, and Others. Preliminary analyses of these data appear promising because they generate little prediction error, in- or out-of-sample. This track record allows guarded optimism in terms of the model’s ability to accurately forecast the upcoming September 2021 election. We review the literature and the data and measures, followed by model building and relevant performance tests. CF, a hitherto neglected forecasting strategy for the German case, seems to shed considerable light on the sometimes dimly seen workings of this complex coalitional system. (xsd:string)
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  • (Politbarometer) (xsd:string)
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  • Politbarometer-Bibliography (xsd:string)
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  • 2022 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2022 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 10.1017/S1049096521000925 ()
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  • 97 (xsd:string)
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  • english (xsd:string)
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  • 10490965 ()
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  • 1 (xsd:string)
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  • Citizen Forecasts of the 2021 German Election (xsd:string)
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  • In PS: Political Science & Politics, 55(1), 97-101, 2022 (xsd:string)
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  • 2022 (xsd:string)
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  • 55 (xsd:string)