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?:abstract
  • This article examines several explanatory factors of individual voting decisions in the 2013 federal election in Germany. Building on an augmented version of the Ann Arbor model, it puts forward several hypotheses concerning the impact of long-term and short-term factors on electoral choice and how the short-term factors themselves are influenced by the long-term factors. Using survey data, the hypotheses are tested. The results show that short-term factors had considerable influence on vote choice, but were themselves influenced by long-term factors. In particular, opposition to a continuation of German financial aid to EU member states affected by the debt crisis was the single most important explanatory factor of vote choice for the Euro-critical AfD. The main driving forces of Euro criticism appear to have been socially conservative views rooted in latent ethnocentrism and exclusive solidarity, rather than economic liberalism. The analysis of the candidate preferences revealed that, as far as the individual level is concerned, Steinbrück and Merkel effects were comparably important for vote choice. Interestingly, the popular support for Merkel does not predominantly root in subparts of the population with distinct policy preferences in line with traditional social-conservative guiding principles of Christian Democratic policies. The opposite is true for the candidate of the SPD, Peer Steinbrück, who appears to have attracted his support mostly from within his own political camp. The article concludes with discussing the implications of these findings for the electoral prospects of the parties. (xsd:string)
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  • GLES-Bibliography (xsd:string)
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  • 5. Fassung, März 2016 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2015 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2015 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 89 (xsd:string)
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  • Chancellor Merkel, the European Debt Crisis and the AfD: An Analysis of Voting Behaviour in the 2013 Federal Election (xsd:string)
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  • incollection (xsd:string)
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?:reference
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  • Germany after the 2013 Elections: Breaking the Mould of Post-Unification Politics? (xsd:string)
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  • In Germany after the 2013 Elections: Breaking the Mould of Post-Unification Politics?, edited by d'Ottavioa, Gabriele and Saalfeld, Thomas, 89-109, Ashgate, 2015 (xsd:string)
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  • German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) (xsd:string)
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  • 2015 (xsd:string)
  • FDZ_Wahlen (xsd:string)
  • GLES (xsd:string)
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  • 109 (xsd:string)
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