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  • Increasing numbers of undecided individuals in pre-election polls throughout western democracies impose a severe challenge for election forecasting. While conventionally these voters are neglected relying on presumably unjustified assumptions, we sketch more nuanced approaches incorporating the potential valuable information in a set-valued manner. Hereby, each undecided voter is represented by the set of parties he or she is incapable to choose from. This set, containing one true, but unknown element, enables modelling under so-called epistemic imprecision. Depending on further assumptions, (imprecise) transition probabilities between the options can be estimated in order to achieve election forecasting. Starting with Dempster's upper and lower probabilities as the most cautious approach, two further ideas are introduced, providing initial methodology. Furthermore, extensions including Bayesian modeling are sketched. The theory is applied using data from the German Longitudinal Election Study for forecasting concerning the most recent German federal election of 2017. The results are promising, laying the groundwork for further research. (xsd:string)
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  • First published online: September 16, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58449-8_18. (GLES) (xsd:string)
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  • GLES-Bibliography (xsd:string)
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  • 10. Fassung, Dezember 2020 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2020 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2020 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 10.1007/978-3-030-58449-8_18 ()
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  • 242 (xsd:string)
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  • english (xsd:string)
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  • 978-3-030-58449-8 ()
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  • 12322 (xsd:string)
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  • Undecided Voters as Set-Valued Information - Towards Forecasts Under Epistemic Imprecision (xsd:string)
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  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
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  • International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management (xsd:string)
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  • In International Conference on Scalable Uncertainty Management, edited by Davis, Jesse and Tabia, Karim(12322), 242-250, Springer International Publishing, 2020 (xsd:string)
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  • 23.09.-25.09.2020 (xsd:gyear)
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  • German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) (xsd:string)
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  • 2020 (xsd:string)
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  • GLES (xsd:string)
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  • 250 (xsd:string)
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  • 11.12.2020 (xsd:gyear)
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