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  • In all German state elections held since the European Parliament election in 2014 the right-wing populist AfD has passed the electoral threshold and won seats. The same applies to the Bundestag election in 2017. This study investigates the influence of socio-demographics, attitudes and evaluations on the party’s success in seven state elections between 2014 and 2016, using both state-level survey data and aggregated socio-economic data at district level. At district level systematic associations are found between certain socio-demographic characteristics and electoral support for the AfD. Higher unemployment, a low proportion of foreign nationals and a smaller proportion of highly educated persons are all associated with greater support for the AfD. In relation to individual vote choice, attitudes and opinions are in general more relevant than socio-demographic characteristics. The strongest effects are found for dissatisfaction with the performance of the (state) government and for right-wing socio-cultural attitudes. Moreover, sociodemographic factors are also significant: women are less likely to vote for the AfD, as are the highly educated. Clearer patterns can be identified for state elections held in 2016 than for earlier elections. This suggests that a degree of structuring of the political competition has occurred and a homogenisation of the AfD’s voters. This development coincided with a period where political debate has been dominated by socio-cultural issues, first and foremost the so-called refugee question. Relevant spatial differences are also identified at both levels of analysis. Taken as a whole, support for the AfD is rooted in complex and context-dependent patterns. Simplifications like “male, poor, uneducated and politically disillusioned” fail to do the issue justice in the context of Germany as a whole. (xsd:string)
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  • http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/wiso/14560.pdf. (GLES) (xsd:string)
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  • GLES-Bibliography (xsd:string)
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  • 8. Fassung, Februar 2019 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2018 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2018 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 36 (xsd:string)
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  • Who Votes Right-Wing Populist? Geographical and Individual Factors in Seven German State Elections (xsd:string)
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  • techreport (xsd:string)
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  • 36, 2018 (xsd:string)
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  • German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES) (xsd:string)
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  • 2018 (xsd:string)
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