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This paper examines how labor market policy interventions, notably short-time work (STW), affect voting behavior. We use the 2009 German general elections as an example because the grand coalition of Christian democrats (CDU/CSU) and social democrats (SPD) used STW extensively to avoid the recession of 2009, translating into rising unemployment. Interestingly, there is an important regional variance in STW. We use this variance in STW and unemployment to create a unique dataset that combines regional information on 299 German electoral districts with individual survey data. Our results show that both governing parties, but especially the social democrats, profited from high STW rates on election day, but this policy was insufficient to preclude the major losses social democrats suffered during the election. More generally, we show that labor market policy interventions, in this case STW policy, generate electoral support for incumbents.
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http://www.philipptrein.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Shorttime_0718.pdf. (GLES)
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GLES-Bibliography
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8. Fassung, Februar 2019
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How does labor market policy affect voting behavior during crisis? Evidence from Germany
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German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES)
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2018
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FDZ_Wahlen
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GLES
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GLES_input2018
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GLES_pro
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checked
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