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Voters across democracies have become increasingly likely to vote for challenger parties and to reject establishment parties. We argue that the degree of ideological congruence that voters perceive between themselves and their elected governments can affect their decision of whether to support a challenger party in the next election. When voters perceive themselves to be ideologically further away from their governments, we expect the probability of supporting a challenger party in the next election to increase. We expect this relationship to hold to varying degrees across three sets of voters: those who voted for a governing party in the last election, those who voted for an opposition establishment party in the last election, and those who supported a challenger party in the last election. The effect of perceived ideological congruence on support for challenger parties should also be stronger when elections are held under more proportional electoral rules. We draw on data from 54 elections held in 23 democracies included in the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) to test these expectations. Our findings generally support our expectations and suggest that the probability of supporting a challenger party increases as the perceived ideological distance between a voter and the government grows.
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CSES-Bibliography
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Are Distant Voters More Likely to Reject the Establishment? The Effects of Perceived Ideological Congruence on Support for Challenger Parties
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inproceedings
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Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), 14-18 April 2021, virtual
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In Annual Conference of the Midwest Political Science Association (MPSA), 14-18 April 2021, virtual, 2021
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Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES)
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2021
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CSES
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transfer21
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