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?:abstract
  • It is not always possible to conduct surveys near an election. This is especially true in Europe where the timing of elections varies widely from country to country. Not only do elections rarely occur at the same time across countries, election dates are not fixed within most European countries, making it nearly impossible to plan post-election surveys in Europe. Even in the United States, where elections are fixed events, off-election surveys are often used. Because there is no ongoing campaign, these surveys rely on vote intention questions as a measure of vote choice. The typical wording of a vote intention question is, “If there were a general election tomorrow, which party would you support?” Many researchers, especially users of Eurobarometer data, rely on these questions as a measure of vote choice. However, it is unclear if these questions are in fact valid indicators of voting behavior. Drawing on information processing theories, this paper develops a theoretical framework to identify the conditions under which vote intention measures accurately vote choice. Hypotheses generated by this framework are tested across multiple countries and years using Eurobarometer and American National Election Studies survey data. The paper concludes with suggestions for the appropriate use of vote intention items. (xsd:string)
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  • (Eurobarometer) (xsd:string)
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  • Eurobarometer-Bibliography (xsd:string)
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  • 2001 (xsd:gyear)
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  • 2001 (xsd:gyear)
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  • Is the road to bad inference paved with good intentions? : an audit of vote intention survey items (xsd:string)
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  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
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  • 2001 Summer Methods Conference, Atlanta, GA, July 19-21 (xsd:string)
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  • Bibsonomy (xsd:string)
  • In 2001 Summer Methods Conference, Atlanta, GA, July 19-21, 2001 (xsd:string)
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  • EB - Standard and Special Eurobarometer (xsd:string)
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  • 2001 (xsd:string)
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  • Eurobarometer (xsd:string)
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  • checked (xsd:string)
  • english (xsd:string)
  • inproceedings (xsd:string)
  • input2017 (xsd:string)
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