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In a recent Republican gubernatorial debate on WTMJ-TV, Rebecca Kleefisch put a different spin on unemployment and the state’s workforce. Here is how her staff relayed the comment in a July 24, 2022 tweet, issued even as the debate continued: There is absolutely no reason why Wisconsin should be facing a worker shortage to the level we are when there are 123,000 more able-bodied childless adults on BadgerCare since the pandemic. We need to get Wisconsinites off welfare and into work that pays! Kleefisch, a two-term lieutenant governor, was joined in the GOP debate by businessman Tim Michels and state Rep. Tim Ramthun, R-Campbellsport. The primary election is Aug. 9, 2022, with the winner facing Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat. We were interested in whether Kleefisch had her numbers right — but also whether it’s as simple as putting any able-bodied adult on BadgerCare into an available job. Spoiler alert: It’s much more complicated than that. A look at the numbers When asked for backup for the claim, Kleefisch staffer Mattias Gugel pointed PolitiFact Wisconsin to Department of Health Services statistics on Medicaid. Those numbers show that in February 2020, just before the pandemic, total Medicaid childless adult enrollment was 152,046. In June of 2022, enrollment was at 277,939 — an increase of 125,893. Gugel said Kleefisch was using May numbers, when the increase would have been 123,311. He also argued that the use of the phrase to the level meant Kleefisch doesn't believe this was some cure-all to fix the worker shortage. Fair enough. But that was the thrust of the argument — that those able-bodied people on Medicaid could make a big dent in the worker shortage. Indeed, Gugel also told us that, in Kleefisch’s view, Evers and President Joe Biden are refusing to remove individuals from Medicaid who should no longer be eligible. The availability of government benefits is a disincentive to work, therefore a contributing factor to the worker shortage problem. So, that framing — the way it is being presented to voters — makes a difference in our analysis, and causes us to give more weight to that side of the equation. Two faulty premises Elizabeth Goodsitt, a Department of Health Services communications specialist, said the claim — and the way Gugel says Kleefisch is framing it — relies on two faulty premises: One, the state could simply remove individuals from BadgerCare Plus at any time, and two that working and being on BadgerCare Plus are mutually exclusive. Both are inaccurate. On the removal front, Goodsitt said federal law effectively bars states from changing or terminating Medicaid coverage until after the (COVID) public health emergency ends. At this time, that is not set to expire until Oct. 13, 2022. On the working front, she said historically more than 45% of those childless adults are employed, adding: They enroll in BadgerCare Plus because they are underemployed and do not have health insurance available through their jobs. What’s more, although there is a worker shortage in many areas, Kleefisch in her claim neglects to recognize that employment in Wisconsin has reached historic highs — and unemployment is near record lows. The state’s ‘labor force participation rate’ (measuring the share of the working-age population in the labor force) is 66.5%, Laura Dresser, associate director at the University of Wisconsin-Madison’s Center on Wisconsin Strategy, told us via email. That’s higher than it was before the pandemic and substantially higher than the national rate of 62.3%. Jennifer Sereno, the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development’s communications director, pointed to similar statistics and noted they would appear to undermine the assertion that participation in BadgerCare is affecting employment and labor force participation Finally, worker shortages are about more than the Medicaid benefits. Sachin Shivaram, CEO of Wisconsin Aluminum Foundry in Manitowoc, laid out his perspective in a May 2021 opinion piece that ran in USA Today Network-Wisconsin newspapers. Since the start of the pandemic, the labor force in America has shrunk by about 4 million people, he wrote. This does not include workers on unemployment, because they are technically considered to be in the labor force. He also pointed to demographic issues: Our overall population grew by just 7% in the past 10 years while the economy grew by 50%. Add to that, baby boomers are retiring in droves. There are other factors, too, including slower rates of immigration and the mismatch between skills that employers seek and the skills job seekers have. The pandemic displaced millions of low-skilled workers in economic sectors like hospitality and retail, Shivaram wrote. But the jobs that are in highest demand now are in sectors like manufacturing and truck driving that generally require specific training. So, the picture is far, far more complex than Kleefisch suggests. In other words, there are reasons — many of them — behind the worker shortage, ones that go far beyond the number of able-bodied childless adults on BadgerCare. Our ruling Kleefisch claimed, There is absolutely no reason why Wisconsin should be facing a worker shortage to the level we are when there are 123,000 more able-bodied childless adults on BadgerCare since the pandemic. She was on target with the 123,000 figure, but is off the mark when she links the number so strongly to the worker shortage. First, many of those 123,000 may already be working. And they may not be able to step into many of the open jobs without additional training. What’s more, the claim greatly oversimplifies the economy and the factors helping create the workers shortage, from baby boomers retiring to lower immigration to the mismatch between worker skills and open jobs. For a statement that contains an element of truth but ignores critical facts that would give a different impression, our rating is Mostly False.
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