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  • 2014-11-16 (xsd:date)
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  • Worldwide Chocolate Shortage? (en)
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  • On 15 November 2014, the Washington Post published an article that caused widespread laments on social media. According to that publication, a worldwide chocolate shortage could be part of a dystopian future as soon as the year 2020. Naturally, folks began discussing and sharing news of the impending worldwide chocolate shortage. The idea of a world without chocolate certainly sounds unpalatable, but is there a real risk behind the alarm over the planet's chocolate supplies? As it turns out, the Washington Post didn't precisely say 2020 is the death knell for chocolate as we know it. The article in question addressed chocolate deficits, a market condition wherein demand outstrips supply. Historically, such circumstances don't lead to a complete dearth of a product or foodstuff; rather, scarcity simply tends to drive prices skyward and reduce consumption of the newly-scarce commodity: The circulating article states chocolate deficits have been the norm for 50 years (and yet Halloween still hasn't ever been canceled). The comments to which the Post refers but doesn't quote have more to do with market fluctuations and higher cocoa prices than a specific looming absence of chocolate from the global supply chain overall: Remarks made by Dawson (who no longer heads up Mars in the UK) were reported two years prior to the 2014 rumors about chocolate shortages. Articles circulating on social media cite 2013 chocolate market trend reports; but in those, much of the focus was on increased consumption in regions like China and their impact on the global chocolate supply: Ultimately, it's true that demand for chocolate is currently outstripping supply, resulting in a market deficit. Growing conditions and climate fluctuations could affect future cocoa crop yields in Africa, and may even affect chocolate prices in coming years. However, the chocolate shortage predicted by 2020 seems to be a bit overhyped, as it's quite likely chocolate will still be widely available for purchase even if current market conditions continue or intensify. Furthermore, many of the chocolate industry executives who have commented on the potential for chocolate shortages did so years ago; and they spoke more to increased costs and demand than an actual extinction of cocoa. A similar rumor appeared a few years later amid the sturm und drang of late 2017, but concluded that due to a rapidly changing climate, cacao plants would be gone by 2050, not 2020. Climate change is a real threat to cacao plants (and, indeed, all of human life) and those mechanisms plus unfettered development do threaten areas currently used to grow the crop; however, in that case the rumors did not take into consideration adaptability, human ingenuity, or other confounding factors. (en)
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