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Brexit will lead to a cut to GDP of between 3%, 5% and 8%. However you look at it, that’s a recession. This is based on government figures which were actually saying that economic growth is likely to slow down, not that a recession is likely. Condemning the economic impact [of Brexit], that the government themselves have said. A cut to GDP of between three, five, and eight percent. Whichever way you sell it, soft or hard, that is a recession. Matt Forde, 3 May 2018 Figures published by the government on the economic impact of different Brexit scenarios suggested that over the next 15 years economic growth might be reduced by around 2% if the UK remains in an EEA-Type Scenario—for example a similar sort of relationship to the EU as the one Norway has. They are suggesting that instead of the economy growing by about 25% over 15 years, it might instead grow by something like 23%. It suggested growth could be reduced by around 5% if the UK enters into a free trade agreement with the EU, and by around 8% if it leaves the EU without a deal and trades on World Trade Organisation terms. In its analysis, the government said it planned to pursue a more ambitious deal than any of these and that the global environment, [the] EU’s policy outlook and sectoral issues would all affect the outcome. Overall, the government emphasised that the analysis was a work in progress and is not representative of the expected outcome of the negotiations. These figures don’t mean that the government thinks there will be a recession. A recession would mean the economy is shrinking, whereas these figures are about it growing less quickly than it otherwise might have. There are a wide range of estimates on what might happen to the UK economy in the long-term after Brexit is complete. Most predict that growth will be slower. We’ve written more about interpreting economic models and predictions here.
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