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  • 2021-09-24 (xsd:date)
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  • Rasmussen: ‘Trump 2024 Would Beat Either Biden or Harris’ – Truth... (en)
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  • Rasmussen: ‘Trump 2024 Would Beat Either Biden or Harris’ Claim A September 2021 poll indicated Donald Trump would defeat both U.S. President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris if the former president decides to run in 2024. Rating Decontextualized Like this fact check? Reporting On September 24 2021, AmericanMilitaryNews.com published a story headlined, Rasmussen poll: Trump beating Biden 51%-41% in 2024 presidential poll, which claimed: Donald Trump would defeat both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris if the former president decides to run in 2024, a new poll revealed Thursday [September 23 2021]. According to a Rasmussen Reports poll, in a race between Trump and Biden in 2024, 51 percent of possible voters said they would vote for Trump, whereas just 41 percent said they would choose Biden. On Twitter, the verified account @Rasmussen_Poll tweeted about this purported poll on September 23 2021, linking to secondary coverage a day later: Trump 2024 a good idea? 48% yes / 44% no Florida is where wokes go to die... Please enable JavaScript Florida is where wokes go to die Republicans – 76% yes #breakingpoll #trump2024 @POTUS @VP https://t.co/qdLKZcKQer pic.twitter.com/hsJWeOKrHd — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 23, 2021 2024: Trump over Biden by 10 points, Harris by 13 https://t.co/rJzjyAcnyO — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 23, 2021 As is typical for fact checks relating to purported polls , we attempted to review the material made public by Rasmussen. The link they initially tweeted led to a page obscured in large part by a paywall; a methodology page was available here : Thursday, September 23, 2021 Voters are divided on whether former President Donald Trump should run again in 2024, but most would vote for him in a race against either President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 48% of Likely U.S. Voters think it would be a good idea for Trump to run for president again in 2024, while 44% say it would be a bad idea. (To see survey question wording , click here.) [...] Want to read more? Become a Rasmussen Reader to read the article Rasmussen described the linked material not as a poll, but as a survey. A link for survey question wording was not behind a paywall, but four links at the top were all unavailable for review without the purchase of a subscription: See Article See Crosstabs See Toplines Platinum Page Earlier in September 2021, we examined claims that nearly half of Americans believed U.S. President Joe Biden to be mentally unstable, which was not the work of Rasmussen. However, we were able to access the demographic data of that survey, context not obscured by a paywall: ‘Almost Half of America Thinks Biden is Mentally Unstable According to New Poll’ Contextually, there were plenty of reasons to be skeptical of Rasmussen’s claims. Contemporaneous tweets from the company demonstrated partisan collaboration (such as one poll which was Sponsored by The ANTIFA by @JackPosobiec): Reader Alert: President Biden's single overnight job approval results last night were exceptionally weak, continuing his most recent daily downward trend, and today we return him to his previous record low in our 3-day rolling approval avg. — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 24, 2021 Check out today's #BidenApproval numbers – https://t.co/JK4rv8l1Zy Sponsored by The ANTIFA by @JackPosobiec pic.twitter.com/cTUhpHsA7A — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 23, 2021 Still more Rasmussen tweets seemed to be pushing not poll results, but 2020 election conspiracy theories: 2020 Election Integrity: National – Are State Legislatures Empowered To 'Decertify' Elections If Election Fraud Is Later Proven? An update for AZ Senate Judiciary Comm Member Senator @WendyRogersAZ from @mdeperno (The answer is Yes he argues.) https://t.co/3VhYiaKUWJ https://t.co/f8o4aXhsU0 pic.twitter.com/pyGTCBFcKd — Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 23, 2021 In June 2019, FiveThirtyEight.com’s Nate Silver said of Rasmussen: re: Rasmussen: worth noting that founder Scott Rasmussen was ousted from Rasmussen Reports several years ago (in 2013). While their polls have always had a GOP lean, Scott was a good guy who cared about polling accuracy. The guy who took over (Ted Carroll) is...a...different story. — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 16, 2019 In short, headlines like Rasmussen poll: Trump beating Biden 51%-41% in 2024 presidential poll in September 2021 were seemingly opaque by design; the outfit described it as a survey rather than a poll. Information about the survey was hidden behind a paywall, making it impossible to analyze, apparently by design. Concurrent social media activity by @Rasmussen_Poll was highly partisan in nature, and included collaboration with far right disinformation purveyor Jack Posobiec. Posted in Fact Checks , Politics Tagged american military news , polls , rasmussen poll , sketchy polls , trump beats biden 2024 , trump beats biden 2024 poll , viral tweets (en)
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