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Example: [Collected via e-mail, April 2009] Origins: The notion that Christendom (primarily western Europe, but also North America) is in danger of being overwhelmed within a few generations by Muslim immigrants with comparatively high birth rates (while the natives of the countries they are emigrating to are reproducing at or below mere replacement level) has been a common topic of western press articles in the last several years. However, sucharticles (and examples like the video linked above) often suffer from flaws that tip them more towards being alarmist rather than accurate and sober analyses: They cherry pick and exaggerate a few gloomy-sounding statistics without presenting them within a larger context, they assume that current demographic trends will remain static even in the face of future political, economic or social changes, and they don't acknowledge that fertility rates are influenced by a number of complex, interrelated, and volatile factors. For starters, much of the information presented in the video is incorrect, unsubstantiated, or misrepresented: It's true that in recent years population growth in EU countries has been primarily driven by immigration, which, for example, accounted for almost 85% of the population growth in EU countries in 2005. However, that statistic includes all immigrants to EU countries, not just Muslims. We can't make out what source the video is citing as the basis of this statistic, but the BBC noted that: The 2001 UK census tallied about 1.6 million Muslims in England and Wales, and that number may have grown to something approaching 2.5 million in the years since then (although 2008 estimates put the figure at only about 2 million). However, the 82,000 figure used as the starting point for this projection is questionable since the 1981 census did not survey respondents' religious beliefs — some believe that the number of Muslims in the population of England and Wales thirty years ago was significantly higher than the 82,000 estimate given here, and thus the true rate of growth in that segment of the population is much less than the 30-fold increase cited in the video. The upcoming 2011 census should provide a clearer picture. As of 2004, Muslims comprised about 5.8% of the population of the Netherlands. In order for this small percentage of the population to account for 50% of all newborns, Muslim women in the Netherlands would have to be giving birth, on average, to about 14 to 16 times as many babies each as non-Muslim women. Muslims are the second-largest religious group in Belgium, but they still only account for about 4%-5% of the population. And, as noted above, for that small a segment of the population to be accounting for 50% of all newborns in the country, Muslim women would have to be giving birth to incredibly large numbers of children each. The quoted statement was made by Walter Radermacher, the vice-president of the Germany's Federal Statistical Office. However, he was speaking only of German population trends in general; the final sentence (about Germany's becoming a Muslim state) is someone else's words, as he affirmed to the BBC: The 52 million figure is a reasonable estimate for the number of Muslims in Europe. However, as the last part (about the Muslim population's doubling in the next two decades), Walter Radermacher said: As we observed above, the assumption that current demographic trends will remain static — even in the face of future political, economic or social changes — is an especially important (and precarious) one, as even small changes in fertility rates can have a significant impact on the future size and nature of populations. Or, as Martin Walker noted a Spring 2009 Wilson Quarterly on the subject, the detailed work of demographers tends to seep out to the general public in crude form, and sensationalist headlines so become common wisdom. Particularly, Walker wrote, as the result of this seepage of crude information is that three deeply misleading assumptions about demographic trends have become lodged in the public mind: In regards to specific claims about Muslim immigrants supplanting native-born populations in Europe due to the former's much higher fertility rates, Walker observed: In short, the best demographers can do is make broad guesses about population trends based on current conditions and assumptions about how (and how much) those trends might be influenced by societal changes. Or, as summarized by Walker:
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