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A man who claims to have extrasensory perception (ESP) allegedly sent a letter predicting a devastating tsunami by the end of 2017 to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. In his letter, which went viral in September 2017, Babu Kalayil claims to have predicted that an earthquake will strike somewhere in the Indian Ocean, causing the tsunami: First and foremost, earthquake prediction — at least when limited by things that have a scientific basis — is one of the major as-yet-unrealized dreams of seismology. The best science can offer outside of probability estimates are warnings after an earthquake has occurred but prior to its effects reaching an area further away — something that provides advance notice on the order of seconds, but which is not, strictly speaking, a prediction. ESP is not supported by any rigorous science, but even if it were, Kalayil’s claims — encompassing a four-month period of time and the entirety of an ocean basin that frequently experiences earthquakes — are pretty vague. What science can tell us is that, based on the geologic record of tsunamis from northern Sumatra that goes back 1,000 years, tsunamis on the scale Kalayil describes in that region are quite rare: This is not the first time Kalayil has turned up in the news. A dubious 2005 story published in the Indian newspaper The Hindu described an alleged effort (which we cannot verify) by a physicist identified as G. Renuka at the University of Kerata to test Kalayil’s powers of ESP: Regardless of the veracity of any of those claims (which also sound quite broad), fear-mongering reports that his letter should hold any weight whatsoever are misinformed. While his stationery is impressive looking and contains an excellent play on words (defining ESP as both extrasensory perception AND earth and space prediction), he is merely an individual who believes he has the power to see the future. Indian fact-checking website Boom attempted to contact Kalayil through the numbers listed on his letter, but received no response. As such, we rank the claim of any valid prediction regarding an Indian Ocean earthquake/tsunami prior to December 31, 2017 as false.
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